Survivorship Bias

Survivorship bias is something that affects almost everyone. It impacts decision making in a large way, and a negative one at that. Essentially, survivorship bias is when you focus on what successful people have done right, instead of what other have done wrong. This occurs in most people's everyday lives.

An example of survivorship bias can be found in Silicon Valley. Everyone has heard of famous entrepreneurs such as Steve Jobs and mark Zuckerberg, who have turned simple ideas into multi-billion dollar companies. According to survivorship bias, this causes us to think that we too can be that successful, as long as we put in hard work. By focusing on the sucsess of others, however, we ignore the fact that 99% of Silicon Valley startups die before making a large profit. By focusing on personal stories, we convince ourselves that we can do anything, as long as we act like those who have been successful before.

This trend is prevalent in other areas of society too. Many people attempt to break into the music and acting fields, enamored by the stories of famous actors and musicians who were discovered seemingly randomly. They convince themselves that the same could happen to them, that they could be just as lucky as the select few who have made it to the big time. They ignore the fact that thousands of other people have this same belief, and that they will be in direct competition with those people.

Many intelligent people have been able to profit off of this belief, by selling their advice. They sell their program, consisting of steps they say will allow you to become just as successful as they are. All you have to do is follow their steps, they say, then you can make millions. However, no one stops to wonder why there aren't already more of these people. If this program isn't so successful, then why aren't there more millionaires, or people like its creator. These programs hook people on the promise of success, and lure them in based on the achievements of the program's leader. This is all well and good, but consider how many people have passed through these programs, and consider who you never hear any famous people crediting programs like these for their success.

When considering any decision, always remember to consider both the success of others, and the mistakes of failures in equal measure. Without doing so, you run the risk of slipping into the same trap that so many have fallen into before. By weighing both equally, you give yourself the opportunity to make a more informed decision, and you also give yourself an edge over your competition.